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“The overall variety of US households, which represents the demand for houses, is consistently rising. So, an annual tempo of 4 million existing-home gross sales at the moment is, comparatively talking, a lot weaker than the identical quantity 15 years in the past, given the rise in demand.”
Fleming identified that the whole variety of households within the US has elevated by 18% over the past 15 years, from 112 million in 2010 to 132 million in 2025.
Whereas pending house gross sales have elevated just lately, the February report from the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors (NAR) confirmed numbers nonetheless close to historic lows. As dangerous as that sounds, Fleming means that when the tempo of house gross sales is in comparison with previous many years and the rise in complete households, the numbers look even worse.
“In February, complete mixed house gross sales have been 5 million seasonally adjusted annualized gross sales, or 3.7% of complete households, which is 1.1 proportion factors beneath the historic pre-pandemic common of 4.8%,” Fleming mentioned. “If complete house gross sales have been monitoring on the long-run common proportion of complete households, the tempo could be 6 million. Aside from the transient dip in 2010, as a result of expiration of the first-time house purchaser tax credit score, this stage of gross sales exercise as a share of complete households is just like the early Nineteen Eighties.”
Whereas Fleming isn’t predicting that the housing market pattern will proceed on the identical path as that decade, there are similarities between that period and the current.
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